NATIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
Each student should pick one less developed country and one
more developed country. Preferably these
are countries in which the student has some personal interest. You can pick a
combination of countries consulting the Population Reference Bureau's
"World Population Data Sheet" at http://www.prb.org and/or the
International Database of the U.S. Bureau of the Census at:
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www.
It is important to choose a country as soon as possible so
that you can begin searching for data sources. To produce an effective profile, the following
data should be available for at least two different dates:
The objectives
of the project are to:
· build demographic
profiles of a less developed and a comparison more developed country;
· analyze changes
over time in the demography of the countries under study;
· relate demographic
changes to broader social changes that are occurring in each country;
· compare the causes
and consequences of population growth in the two countries.
Your assignment
is to write a 10-15 page paper (typed, double-spaced) using the questions below
as guidelines.
1. Describe the
history of population growth over time in each country. What is the current population, and how has
the population grown over time? What is
the current rate of growth? And what is
the implied doubling time? How much of the demographic transition have these
nations experienced? (Chapters 1-3 )
2. Discuss the
sources of data available for your countries, including census data, vital
registration data, and survey data (if it is a developing country see if any
data are available from the Demographic Health Surveys:
http://www.measuredhs.com/. (Chapter 4)
3. Transition 1.
Find as much information as possible about mortality--age/sex-specific
mortality rates, life expectancy, and deaths by cause--for at least two ,
better three different dates. Compare the data. What are the mortality trends? Two sources you might consult for
information, if you cannot find official government publications, are:
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www and/or
http://www.who.ch/whosis as well as
Murray, Christopher J.L. Murray and Alan D. Lopez, The Global Burden of Disease:
A Comprehensive Assessment of Mortality and Disability From Diseases, Injuries,
and Risk Factors in 1990 and Projected to 2020 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard
University Press), 1996. (optional)
Given the prevailing cultural norms, what is the likely rank-ordering of
"real" causes of death, compared to those given in the vital
statistics? (Chapter 5 )
4. Transition 2.
Using survey data (such as: http://www.measuredhs.com/ or
http://www.un.org/Pubs/CyberSchoolBus/infonation/e_infonation.htm) or any other
available source investigate what variables influence fertility levels and in what
way (some of this information may be gleaned from tables in the World Bank's
annual World Development Report--see http://www.worldbank.org/. Find or calculate as many of the different
measures of fertility as possible for at least two (better three) different
dates (the U.S. Bureau of the Census's International Database is particularly
useful for this: http://www.census.gov/ipc/www). What changes have been occurring over
time? Do different measures of fertility
yield somewhat different interpretations of trends? Draw as many conclusions as you can about the
probable underlying motivations for the observed fertility levels and trends
over time. (Chapter 6)
5. Transition 3.
What are the patterns of internal migration, especially rural-to-urban migration? What are the patterns of migration from or to
other countries? Are there any studies
available relating migration to other demographic (such as fertility) or
socioeconomic (such as labor force participation) variables? Are the data available to calculate migration
rates by age and/or to calculate the migration ratio? Which of the various theories of migration
seem best able to explain patterns of migration within, to, and/or from these
countries? A good resource for information is Migration News, which is online
at: http://migration.ucdavis.edu and the Migration Information Source:
http://www.migrationinformation.org. (Chapter 7)
6. Transition 4.
Find age/sex pyramids for two different dates for each country by going to:
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html. "Read" the age structure,
discussing the implied history of population growth, and the implications for
the future of the current cohort structure. What is the number and proportion
of older people in the population, and how have those figures been changing
over time? How are older people
treated? Are there differences in
socio-demographic characteristics between the young and old in society that
would suggest a source of future social change as new cohorts flow into the older
ages? What is the sex ratio at the older
ages, and how do you account for it?(Chapter 8)
7. Transition 5.
What have been the changes between two-three recent dates in the sizes of the
rural and urban populations? Are data
available on rural and urban differences in rates of natural increase? What are the long-run historical changes in
the percent urban? Do urban places tend
to have relatively high or low population densities? What is the density of the rural
population? Go to the website http://maps.google.com
and click on the satellite view so that you can visually contrast the
differences. Are there any studies available of rural or village life, with
which you can contrast the human condition in the cities? Is there evidence of
rapid rural-to-urban migration that might be consistent with the perspective of
demographic change and response? (Chapter 9)
8. Transition 6.
Describe the trends over time in family and household structure in each
country. Are they related to changes in
age at marriage and/or to changes in gender roles? How do the population characteristics of
women compare with those of men? Have
there been recent changes in education and labor force participation, for
example, which might suggest a rise in the status of women? How has fertility been affected by the status
of women? What evidence can you bring to
bear on that question? (Chapter 10)
9. Using
resources such as the United Nations Yearbook of National Accounts Statistics
or the World Bank's most recent World Development Report
(http://www.worldbank.org/, estimate the level of economic well-being of the
two populations and assess changes over time for the same dates for which you
have demographic data. Are there any
discernible trends in the relationship between population changes and economic
changes in the country? What is the
government position with respect to economic development and population
growth? Can you assess the influence of
the current age/sex structure on the future development prospects? Using a resource such as the World Bank World
Development Report evaluate the likely environmental impact of population
growth in this country. Using the United
Nations Food and Agricultural Organization's data, http://www.fao.org,
determine the level of food production, and trends over time. Has per person production been
increasing? How has globalization and
modern technologies affected each of these countries? How is each country
coping with population growth? What are
the projected changes and what are the demographic challenges facing each
country?
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